Almost Daily Rant

Review of Chris Sullins' Operation SERF

Chris Sullins Operation SERF, the first novel of a three-part series, is a gripping thriller set in 2023 about the second American civil war after a long economic collapse. “Operation SERF” paints a clear picture of how years of economic hardship have taken a toll on American infrastructure, politics and power structures as well as everyday life.

 

 

The novel veers from the fast-collapse scenarios described in John Rawles Patriots, William R. Forstchen’s One Second After and James Kunstler’s World Made by Hand. The plot in Patriots centered on the plight of a tight-knit group of friends and families after a sudden hyperinflationary plunge into the dark ages. In One Second After a small town in North Carolina struggled for survival after an EMP attack crippled the nation. Kunstler’s World Made by Hand, depicted a compressed series of events that set the US back to a 1700’s oil-starved lifestyle and how a small town in upstate New York adapted to those changes.

 

 

While the idea of a sudden, discontinuous trigger event occupies a great portion of the apocalyptic meme from movies to novels, what makes Operation SERF so compelling is how the narrative connects current times with Day 1 of the story in a continuous trajectory. There is no distinct event that ends the world as we know it, but instead a grueling decade-long depression that devolves the nation’s infrastructure, communications and social fabric to the point where the nation begins to splinter. There is no overnight installation of dictatorial rule, but instead the continuing erosion of civil liberties and private property rights.

 

Local governments, who are little more than legitimized gangs in most places, fail to provide the most basic of services but don't fail to extort and plunder the remaining landowners through various land confiscation schemes and horrific tax burdens. The Federal government has instilled a number of make-work programs, marketed as aid to the people, but nothing less than desperate attempts to ensure continuity of government through confiscation and relocation.

 

 

SERF is an acronym for a mandatory Federal program ostensibly aimed at creating jobs for civilians in the sustainable energy field, but in reality the program dislocates civilians to intercity camp cities where the average person is assigned sanitation and salvage jobs. The few precious higher-paying jobs are allocated politically to cronies. Once in the program, most people find they can't escape because the jobs don't pay and they have no means beyond the paltry meal and fuel ration tickets they're issued, hopelessly atomizing families even more than had been the case in the first decade of the 21^st century.

 

 

Outside of official CorpGov interests, the average person’s access to the Internet is limited to a couple hours a day by the weakest link du jour in the communication and energy grid, and with it his ability to form a cohesive understanding of some of the larger truths beyond the mind-numbing, self-serving propaganda. What remains is a patchwork quilt of cooperative efforts to keep pockets of servers, routers and access networks running intermittently on battery banks. 

 

 

By design, it takes the reader several chapters to gain a footing into the story line, as you ride alongside the characters submerged in their confusion as each of the warring factions begin to move their pieces into play for control of what remains of a nation. The factions can be generally classified as the fascists, communists and nationalists, and the motivations of each are slowly revealed as the story unfolds.

 

 

Sullins does a masterful job weaving together the strategy of each group, the on-the-ground tactics and the human side of an extended family caught up in the chaos in a post-peak information-industrial world that is overall resource scarce and impoverished, but not without pockets of advanced technology. For instance, one of the factions uses remote-controlled drones to engage a National Guard Unit, which is caught in the cross-fire of confusing intelligence from central command because each of the factions has partially compromised the US military. The author’s detailed descriptions of hostilities bring the realities of open source warfare to life.

 

 

Sullins touches on the origins of each faction, but allows the reader to connect the actual dots to existing organizations and power structures, so I will do the same.

 

 

Many people understand the two major parties in American politics are effectively a single party fused at the hip and backed by the same interests and beholden to a common set of organizations that do not often represent the best interests of the people, but there are still major divides. Normally, it is in each faction’s best self-interest to cooperate with the other, but that can change in chaotic times when checks on power encroachment are weakened. In the novel, one of the factions uses the Trojan horse of the paramilitarized Homeland Security organization to infiltrate local police forces. And many of initial moves of the civil war, such as dissident round-ups, are done by the color of law in the existing legal framework.

 

 

The novel illustrates vividly why, especially in the hardest of economic times, having an informed population that clings to those rights affirmed by the Constitution and Bill of Rights is the best defense against tyranny. Tyranny does not just one day stand up at a podium and proclaim tyranny. She is patient, cunning and takes her prey through 1000 lashes, while the victim is seldom even conscious of her efforts. Then one day, she just is. 

 

The book is important because it paints a very clear picture how the nation could splinter in the absence of an apocalyptic event that we are conditioned to think of as a requirement for the end of American exceptionalism. I highly recommend you read Operation SERF although it will leave you hanging until the second book is released.

A Review of Full Spectrum Dominance

"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together." Dwight D. Eisenhower, Farewell Address, 1961

"We have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. To do so, we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and day-dreaming; and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives. We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world-benefaction." George F. Kennan, US State Department Policy Memorandum, 1948

 

Full Spectrum Dominance, Totalitarian Democracy by William Engdahl gives clear insight into the geopolitics of the post Cold War world, and its roots while detailing the escalation of the military-industrial complex and intervention in every corner of the globe. While I’ll attempt to give a short summary, I’ll say up front that I suggest you read the book which is highly detailed and sourced with numerous references at the end of each chapter.

 

 

I’ll also say up front to those who consider criticism of US foreign policy in a time of war as unpatriotic, I can think of nothing more patriotic than helping defend our nation, through increased awareness by the average citizen, against the unchecked power of corporate and transnational forces of the military-industrial-financial complex which uses the US military to achieve goals which are not in the long-term interests of the nation under the false pretense of “spreading democracy”, “fighting terrorism” and “humanitarian intervention”. These forces if left unchecked, will not only bankrupt our country and destroy the goodwill of the rest of the world, but could easily escalate to nothing less than a nuclear world war. On the trilateralist side of the equation, the quest towards increased coerced, global governance and a “world without boundaries” can only be achieved through destabilization and economic crisis. Both outcomes are undesirable for those who value sovereignty, liberty and peace.

 

 

Engdalhs picks up where John Perkins leaves off. Perkins’ Confessions of an Economic Hitman and Secret History of the American Empire gives boots on the ground narratives of regime change and coercion of social and economic policies friendly to Western corporate interests in Guatemala, Bolivia, Iran, Egypt and Indonesia.

 

 

In the updated playbook, Non-government Organizations (NGOs) and think tanks have taken the place of the CIA as the tip of the sphere. Information wars are the cleanest path to conquest and regime change is as much a function of manipulating spin and crowds as military tactics.

 

 

The military policy of Full Spectrum Dominance shifted into high gear with 911 as a pretense for global war without boundaries, without an endpoint and without a well-defined enemy. The war in Afghanistan, fought under the pretense of “The War on Terror” is more about gaining control of a key pivot point of power in Eurasia, encirclement of Russia and control of its pipeline flows (and opium fields). The current war is a continuation of similar moves by the British to buffer the Russian threat and secure its crown jewel India over a century ago, chronicled in The Great Game.

 

 

US geo strategy, with key architects Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski, of the Rockefeller faction, can be traced to those of the British Empire directed by Sir Halford Mackinder. Mackinder’s strategy was based on preventing a “cohesive Eurasian pivot point centered on Russia and capable of challenging British global hegemony.” Russian containment in Eurasia is a center piece in Brezezski’s book The Grand Chessboard. Henry Kissinger has been integral to US foreign policy for decades, including his role in preparing Nixon’s policy change toward China in 1972. Brezezski is currently Obama’s foreign policy advisor but has had major roles in both Democratic and Republican administrations for decades.

 

 

The lineage from Mackinder in US politics grew out of Brooks Adams, who deeply influenced Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, and found its way into the heart of American political power in the Council of Foreign Relations and The Rockefeller Foundation. Mackinder described the guiding principles during the 1919 Paris Peace Talks.

 

 

    Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland.

    Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island.

    Who rules the World-Island commands the world.

 

 

In Mackinder’s eyes, the ‘Heartland’ was the core of Eurasia – Russia and Ukraine and Mackinder’s perspective shaped Britain’s entry into WWI, WWI, Churchill’s baiting of the Soviets into a Cold War.

 

 

The Color revolutions in the former Soviet Bloc countries, overthrow of Fernando Marcos of the Philippines and Tiananmen Square destabilization were orchestrated by NGOs, ultimately backed by the state department, such as National Endowment of Democracy, George Soros’ Open Society Institute, Freedom House and Gene Sharp’s Albert Einstein Institution. The first acting president of the NED, Allen Weinstein, commented to the Washington Post that, “A lot of what we (the NED) do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.”

 

 

The marketing, propaganda and crowd swarming techniques developed by RAND through the Pentagon allowed the ‘democratic’ removal of a political opponent while seen through the lens of cable news as genuine outbursts of freedom. The swarming tactic employed agent provocateurs which used Internet chat rooms, blog sites and cell texting for crowd movements guided by GPS satellite images and CNN prepositioned to catch the "protesters". The Color Revolutions showed that the relatively non-violent civilian application of information wars was more effective than the violent military versions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

 

During the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine, Washington backed used a PR firm called Rock Creek Creative and backed Viktor Yushchenko, former Governor of Ukraine’s Central Bank. Yushchenko’s wife is an American citizen who was an official in the Reagan and G.W. Bush administrations. The Georgian Revolution that installed US-trained Mikheil Saakashvili also played a major part in the grand strategy to be able to cut off at any time Russia’s export pipelines to the European Union – a source of 60% of Russia’s export earnings. Similarly, control of ancient Asian trade routes with US military bases throughout Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgystan would not only encircle Russia, but also enable the US to cut China off from oil and gas from the Caspian Sea region.

 

 

The new doctrine is a far cry from the crude CIA-backed overthrow of Mossadegh in Iran and Arbenez in Guatemala in the 1950’s.

 

 

US policy towards China has been based on “soft power” asserting “democracy” and “human rights” in Myanmar, Tibet and Darfur. In Darfur, humanitarianism became the rallying cry for regime change. What is usually not mentioned in the mainstream press is that large oil and gas deposits were discovered in Darfur by Chevron in the 1970’s and the US has had a major role in destabilizing the region through Chad in part to counter China’s ambitions in Africa. The Saffron Revolution in 2007 if viewed objectively could be seen as nothing other than the control of strategic sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea since over 80% of China’s oil imports pass through the Malacca Strait. The revolution came on the heels of a Memorandum of Understanding with PetroChina to supply large amounts of natural gas for 30-years.

 

 

The Pentagon document 2008 Army Modernization Strategy is a call for full spectrum dominance that envisions the US, “for thirty to forty years” would be engaged in continuous wards to control raw materials with clear references to China and Russia as “near peers”. There is a strong parallel with Henry Kissinger’s National Security Strategic Memorandum-200 during the Ford administration which stated one of the key missions was control of population growth in raw material rich countries.  

 

As NATO continues its aggressive expansion through a combination of civilian and military applications of warfare, the more Russia is threatened and likely to respond as was the case in the Georgia in 2008. With the added stress of the missile “defense” system in Eastern Europe which ensures nuclear first strike capability if Russia can’t counter, the threat of a nuclear conflict looms larger now than ever. The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) which maintained nuclear peace during the first cold war goes out the window when either the US or Russia has nuclear dominance forcing the other side to get more defensive and take preventive action which could result in the outbreak of a major war between the US and Russia.

 

 

The more each citizen understands the broader geopolitical perspective of those of profit from war, the more chance we have in preventing the worst-case scenario. Real patriotism is not cheering on unjust wars at the behest of CorpGov that have destabilized the world in spite of cheerleading from both “left” and “right”.

  

Why I Bother and Very High Praise for CHS Survival+ EBook

A good friend of mine asked me what really motivated me to start this website in 2006, so I thought I’d take a broad swag and position the ‘why I bother’ in a form of a list of some guiding questions. It’s surely not the one thing, as the expression goes:

-How do we each best emotionally and philosophically approach the next 2-3 decades, assuming a broad transformation due to economic, social, demographic and environmental factors, as well as political reaction to those factors?

-How do you find the right balance between fatalism (we’re doomed so why bother) and complacency (things will work themselves out through politics and technology)?

-How do you avoid the spectacle of "left"-"right" cartoon politics, but guard against the loss of individual rights, death by 1000 cuts road to fascism, fighting unjust wars, theft by financial cartels, agricultural monopolies (tyranny by seed) and so on?

-How do you reconcile your vigilance over the aristocratic class (I'm not talking classic rich vs. poor claptrap, but rather the highest echelons of global power brokers) that usurps democratic process and governments with the inconvenient fact that in many cases your way of life is deeply intertwined and dependent on the structures and systems they impose? How do you take personal responsibility for your part in the deal instead of simple and pure blame?

-How do you guard against quasi government outside the supposed representative government, which brokers sweetheart deals in backrooms and ensures state-subsidized monopolies maintain an illusion of "free markets", that is more responsible to a small group of elite stakeholders than 99.9% of the population?

-How do you avoid buying into the constant stream of propaganda and Orwellian double-speak in the corporate-owned media, which is nothing more than another means of maintaining structural control by a small group of stakeholders? And again, how do you reconcile your role as someone who is probably in some way shape or form beholden to the same useful myths and outright lies?

-Even if you’ve planned for the worst and stockpiled your beans, bullets and Band-aids in preparation for the sudden plunge into a new dark age completely dominated by warlords with AR’s and AK's, how will you approach day-to-day life if the decisive all-hands-on-deck trigger event never quite comes? What if there is no EMP pulse or sudden hyperinflationary chaos due to an overnight bond market collapse, but a steady descent towards something like a 3^rd world neo feudal arrangement over years, in fits and spurts?

There are of course many others, but that’s a very broad pass which explains the diversity in points of view in authors, writers, columnists and bloggers I link.

No link ever implies, “Hey this guy has all the answers and I agree 100%”, but I respect each of their personal truths and the conviction behind their narratives. I value the free thinkers out there, most of whom have have more wisdom and personal experience than I, who dare speak their form of truth to power and have opinions that aren’t bought and paid for.

That brings me to Charles Hugh Smith’s EBook Survival+ which hits on many of the broader themes of this humble site of mine. Of course I don’t agree with absolutely everything he says in the book, but I can’t be more emphatic to take the time to read this – an excellent summary of the reasons we are where we are, and the factors that most likely shape where we’re heading.

In the end, as my friend points out, it is not what we write or say, but what we do in life.

 

Survival+:

Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation

by Charles Hugh Smith


Introduction

Since launching my blog www.oftwominds.com in May 2005, nothing seemed more important than warning readers that the unsustainably leveraged credit-mad global financial system was poised to break down. Once the system finally crashed in late 2008, my goal switched to writing a practical guide for not just surviving the coming Great Transformation but prospering: a concept I called Survival+ (Plus). This requires liberating ourselves from failed models of credit expansion, resource depletion, financial looting and a counterfeit prosperity built entirely on debt.

I immediately ran into several great difficulties. Many others had foreseen the same calamity, and their focus narrowed on individual survival: relocating to a remote/sustainable spot and preparing for societal collapse by stockpiling self-defense and food.

While prudent and practical on a short-term timeline, this response struck me as incomplete on several levels. Most importantly, stockpiling six months' supplies would not sustain anyone through a 20-year Crisis and Transformation; their own Crisis was simply being delayed a relatively short time. In other words: "what happens in month seven"?

Secondly, many "survivalist" proponents focus on individual preparation, as if a single person or household can prosper without a stable, caring community for reciprocal support. This notion ran counter not just to my own experience but to all of human history. While I understood the desire to "opt out" and become an Isolationist--a solution to general turmoil which has roots going back to the dissolution of the Roman Empire and the Warring States era in ancient China--I felt a more practical, longer-term option to Isolationism should also be presented.

The second great difficulty is that individuals, households and communities exist in larger units: city-states, counties, nations and continents. Even if nation-states were to break apart, the world would remain tightly interconnected. Events, weather, shortages and surpluses in distant places would continue to impact us all. States (by which I mean all forms of government) will continue to extend control over resources and wealth.

Trade has been a key component of security and prosperity since the dawn of civilization. Long before fossil fuels dominated the global economy, land and sea trade in both goods and innovations bound Asia, the Mideast and Europe. Thus a retreat to isolated islands of self-sufficiency, while understandable and practical on one level, does not align with what history teaches us about prosperity. Prosperity ultimately depends on stable communities, surplus production and trade. These essentials have been largely ignored in analyses of the coming Great Transformation.

Thus our individual survival and prosperity are inextricably bound up in larger contexts: we cannot just ignore community, State and trade forces as if they will cease to exist. Even as they no longer function as they did in the past, it seems wise to influence the larger Transformation rather than view ourselves in an isolation which is ultimately misleading.

That is why I subtitled this book "Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation." To believe that we can prosper individually without regard for the actions of our fellow citizens and the State (government) is simply not practical. Yes, a handful of very rugged people have the experience required to live in the deepest remains of wilderness; but the wilderness cannot support more than a handful of people, and most of us do not have the requisite skills or ruggedness to survive that splendid isolation.

This, then, is a practical book for the rest of us.

As I organized the book, another great difficulty quickly arose. I realized that the way a problem is phrased implicitly stakes out the eventual solution. As a result, the greatest challenge in understanding our plight, both as individuals and communities, is essentially conceptual. The forces which benefit most from the status quo are pouring all their prodigious resources into framing the "problems" in such a way that the "obvious solutions" leave their own power, influence and wealth intact.

Lest you wonder how this works, recall that all through the initial phase of the financial crisis in 2008, the mainstream media and standard-issue financial punditry (SIFP) blamed the entire crisis on foolish low-income homebuyers who had chosen to finance their purchases with subprime mortgages.

Framed in this way, the "problem" appeared to be caused by credulous citizens in the lower socio-economic levels. The "solution" was thus to eliminate these people from the pool of potential homebuyers, and auction off their foreclosed homes to worthier buyers.

But subsequent events revealed this framing of the problem to be highly selective: the "problem" extended far beyond feckless subprime borrowers into the top rungs of American Capitalism: the money-center and investment banks, and a politically driven absence of oversight by the very governmental agencies tasked with protecting the public.

The status quo's convenient "framing of the problem" insured that any "solutions" would leave their power, wealth and influence entirely intact; only the impoverished subprimers would suffer, not those who profited so immensely from the housing/credit bubble.

It was thus clear that a practical analysis of the crisis and coming Transformation requires a deep understanding of how "solutions" are set in the framing of the "problem." Indeed, what is "obvious" must be questioned on the deepest levels, for what is "obvious" has two powerful characteristics: it can be managed/manipulated via the mass media, and it directs "solutions" which leave the rentier-financial Power Elite (what I call the Plutocracy) intact.

The nature of propaganda in a so-called free State must then be explored in depth as well.

The last great difficulty is also conceptual. It is relatively straight-forward to present the causes of the coming global crisis: Peak Oil, disintegration of the credit bubble, demographics, etc. Many books do a fine job of outlining the nature of these interlocking crises.

The books attempting to present solutions typically focus on either individuals (along the lines of "get rich as the world falls apart") or idealized policy "fixes" based on academic understandings of large-scale structures (articles on G-20 trade policies, etc). The flaw in both approaches is that neither flows from what I call an integrated understanding of the actual problems. (Key concepts are italicized when introduced.)

Practical solutions must follow from this integrated understanding. Without such a comprehensive conceptual framework, then all proposed solutions will be ungrounded and thus dangerously misleading.

Any "solution" which ignores key elements of the problem is doomed to solve nothing. As in our example of the so-called "subprime crisis," the "solution" of limiting uncreditworthy borrowers did nothing to address the actual problems: highly profitable and highly fraudulent practices riddling every level of the mortgage/rating/securities industries, perverse incentives that created unprecedented opportunities for windfall exploitation, over-reach and looting, etc.

I cannot claim that reaching such an integrated understanding will be easy. Many of the concepts presented here may be unfamiliar and thus difficult to grasp at first. Many are so alien to status quo "explanations" that they may well strike you as the opposite of "obvious." But since I have thought about these concepts and forces for years, they seem "obvious" to me. In the language of our Declaration of Independence: I hold these truths to be self-evident.

So let us begin.

We stand on the threshold of a Great Transformation that will unfold over the next 20 years--a generation. The exact turn and sequence of events is unknown, but a clear-eyed appraisal of the forces, trends and cycles already at work will help us, collectively and as individuals, weather the challenges and turn what could be a catastrophe into a positive transformation.

To the status quo understanding of how our world works, this appraisal will be anything but "obvious." (Sorting out what is "obvious" is a big part of the analysis which follows.)

A number of other writers have addressed preparing for the Depression which has just begun. These books are, within their limited scope, practical and useful. This book aims at a different goal: once we understand the complex forces at work, then we can structure a response on all three levels: household/family, community and nation. For if there is anything we can confidently predict, it's that the nation's crumbling finances will drastically affect every family and every community (continued link)...

 

The Next 100 Years of Geopolitics

George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, published his latest book “The Next 100 Years, A Forecast of the 21st Century” which identifies the major geopolitical themes he foresees. That was such a bold undertaking that I had to pick up a copy since I’ve enjoyed his analysis for years, even though I was highly skeptical because of how badly most projects like this miss the mark.

As bad as it seems for the IOUS of A right now, with chorus cries that we’re going the way of Rome, teetering on socioeconomic collapse, going bankrupt, militarily overstretched and the idea of a Next American Century is heresy, he sees the relative power of the US actually increasing in the 21^st century.

After choking on my coffee, I started putting this into context and realized I didn’t disagree with some of the overall trends as much as my kneejerk reaction led me to believe. Was there a way to merge some of his geopolitical insight with the Panzers, Kunstlers, Bonners and Orlovs of the world? Was there a way to merge his vision with expectations that much of the developed world is tending towards 3^rd world status because of the onslaught of 21^st century crises?

Well to start with, for my money, I’ve never bought into China as being THE next superpower, doubt that market centers like the EU will act as true superpowers and suspect that Russia as a resource country will rise too high before falling again.

Then I put Friedman’s vision into the historical context of how countries can dominate other countries militarily, even while the average person within that country has a very low standard of living. The other major factor he hits on, and cites it as the most critical, is much slower global population growth which all but ensures the end of any illusions of global economic growth being the norm, which dooms some other conventional wisdom about ‘Chindia’.

As Friedman sees it, the US will continue to do what it’s done for years: Make sure no country dominates any region by backing opposing regions and intervening to ensure a balance of power. To put his predictions into the right context, it is important to consider the 5 key geopolitical goals of the US in order of increased magnitude and ambition:

· The complete dominance of North America by the US Army.

· The elimination of any threat to the US by any power in the Western Hemisphere.

· Complete control of the maritime approaches to the US by the Navy in order to preclude any possibility of invasion.

· Complete domination of the world’s oceans to further secure US physical safety and guarantee control over the international trading system.

· The prevention of any other nation from challenging US global naval power from militarily controlling the oceans.

Western Europe will continue to lose relevance, in large part because of an aging population. The entitlement programs which bind the EU aren’t sustainable and the EU will disintegrate due to economic realities and dormant historical riffs. Power will shift from Western Europe to Eastern Europe because of demographics and US-backing of Poland as a stop-gap for Russia which has historically pushed westward in order to create a land buffer (Think of Napoleon’s failed attempt to conquer Russia) . Germany will begin to feel a threat and a strained relationship with the US will result.

For the next decade or so, Russia will continue to emerge as a strong regional power and as the jihadist wars fade, proxy wars between the US and Russia will take a more center stage. But Russia’s economy, now dependent on resource exports, will collapse again by the 20 teens.

Friedman sees China as a paper tiger. Social stability there is dependent on unsustainable economic growth and China is essentially an island, surrounded by impassible terrain and wastelands that isolate it from the rest of the world. In the 19^th century, when the Europeans forced their way into an isolationist China, a huge wealth disparity developed between the wealthy coastal regions and poor interior regions, weakening the central government’s control over the coastal regions leading to instability. A similar trend is happening today. By 2020, China will crater economically and revert back to an isolationist period, never having emerged as the dominate world player many expect.  

Turkey will become the regional power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean reclaiming the Ottoman Empire’s dominance pre-WWI. Japan will be the dominant power in Asia and begin to aggressively expand its sphere of influence in a near replay of the factors which lead up to the Pearl Harbor attacks in the 20^th century. Overtime, US interests will conflict with those of Japan and Turkey eventually leading to a war in 2050 which the US will reestablish global dominance and enjoy a period of 15-20 years of postwar prosperity as it did after WWII due to the emergence of new industries.

North American, not Eurasia, will be the global center of power and the US will dominate North America until a point in time late in the century it is challenged by Mexico when a stronger economy combined with demographics that ensure that Mexicans dominate a 200 mile band north of the present border combine to produce a situation that could result in Mexico emerging as a formidable power.

OK, so there you have it.

What Would You Do in a World Made by Hand?

The silence is deafening.

There is no buzz and hum of traffic.

The pavement slowly succumbs to the earth after a few years of neglect.

Every so often the electricity flickers on and you’re startled by the momentary crackle of a distant evangelist blurting through the radio.

Store shelves are empty, windows are broken and any material that could have been salvaged has long since disappeared. 

You hear rumors of how the rest of the nation is fairing but have no real idea without any electronic communication. There were riots. There was a deadly flu epidemic.  Two major cities were destroyed. Shipping ports have long since shut down. Global commerce is replaced by bartering and the world has become a salvaging operation. There is effectively no central government, though you hear rumors of a President up North, while factions, cults and other lifeboat communities band together here and there and conflicts result.

The motor of the world has stopped, but still you go on.

This is the world that James Howard Kunstler paints in his “World Made by Hand” for one small town in upstate New York dealing with a post-industrial reality.

Kunstler has become the Paul Revere of peak everything awareness urging Americans to wake up to some unwelcome realities we face in the early 21^st century.

Whether you fall in the doomer camp or believe like Thomas Friedman that the world will remain flat or you fall somewhere in between, this is a very gripping novel.

Kunstler’s vivid descriptions of human adaptability, resourcefulness and making due when you can no longer take anything for granted leads you to believe he has been to that place and come back to tell us this story, revealing one poignant scene after another.

The narrative is told through the eyes of Robert Earle, a software executive in “the old world”, who now works as a carpenter years after the flu took his wife and daughter. He recalls jet-setting to places like Las Vegas and Orlando for trade conventions back in the high octane days. Things he took for granted in the fat years, consume much of his time now since you eat what you can either produce or trade for. He converted an old refrigerator to a smoker, made the rear patio of his house a summer kitchen with a wood stove and rigged a metal firebox above the shower head for warm water. He misses what used to be simple, easily obtainable things like black pepper, cinnamon and coffee.

In and around the town of Union Grove, you fell into one of a few camps: You might live and work on Stephen Bullock’s old orchard farm, or become part of the New Faith religious sect who just settled into town and bought the old dilapidated high school and converted it into a hermitage. Or you might fall into Wayne Karp’s circle of motor heads who claimed the landfill and controlled most of the salvage trade or, like Robert Earle, you remained a townsperson trying to manage in an age without any social safety nets.

Yes, Kunstler’s book is speculative fiction, but in a world of cascading, escalating and unresolved crises, truth may ultimately prove stranger than fiction.

If nothing else, you should read this book and ask yourself what would you do in a world made by hand?